The Longhorns have won their last five games and have covered the spread in two of their last three. After an implausibly inconsistent start to the season, Texas is finally beginning to find some semblance of stability. West Virginia is a sneaky tough opponent at home though. The Mountaineers beat Oklahoma State in Morgantown and led Texas Tech by double digits in the second half before losing it in the fourth quarter. Texas can’t afford to get caught looking ahead to the Oklahoma State game next week. This won’t be a blowout, but if the defense continues its improvement under defensive coordinator Greg Robinson, they should be able to cover the relatively small spread of 6.5.

Texas (-6.5) at West Virginia

Lock of the Week

UCLA (-1.5) at Arizona        

These two Pac-12 teams have the same record, which is why the line is so close, but UCLA’s two losses have come on the road against two teams in Oregon and Stanford that are currently ranked in the Top 5 of the BCS standings. Arizona has yet to play any of the top Pac-12 teams. The Wildcats have coasted against a mediocre schedule and have lost to the only semi-decent teams they’ve played this season, USC and Washington. The Bruins are much more battle–tested and should win, and if they do, it’ll be by more than the meager 1.5 points needed to cover.

Upset Alert

Nevada (+9.5) at Colorado State

Nevada has the worst record between the two at 3-6, but the Wolfpack have played an unusually tough schedule for a Mountain West team. Three of their losses have come against No. 2 Florida State, No. 16 Fresno State, and No. 19 UCLA. Give them some respect for scheduling some tough teams they didn’t have to. I think they’re better than their record indicates and they should be able to beat a high 9.5 point spread.

Record: 11-12-1 (.479)