Texas wins if…

It can move the ball. Texas doesn’t necessarily need to throw more or run more to beat Iowa State. The Cyclones played Baylor last weekend, so they are coming off a high-yardage game. Iowa State allowed 485 total yards last weekend — 276 rushing yards and 209 passing yards. If Texas’ offense is balanced, it will be able to wear down the Cyclones defensively, similar to what Baylor did. Texas only had 99 passing yards against Kansas State. This number will have to go up in order to balance out the offense. Texas had 274 rushing yards Saturday, but that does not mean they should rely solely on the running game. Iowa State’s biggest weakness this season is its pass defense. Texas should exploit this weakness by getting a passing game going and moving the ball down the field. The Cyclone defense is an easy one to put up big numbers against. Texas needs to take after the other teams that have beaten Iowa State and put up a couple hundred yards on both passing and rushing fronts. 

The secondary can make stops. The Texas secondary has been a huge weakness on the defensive side of the ball. The defensive line stepped up in recent games. Iowa State passed for only 156 yards against Baylor on Saturday. If Texas’ secondary also can hold Iowa State to a low yardage, the Longhorns could walk away with a win. The Texas secondary allowed 107 passing yards against Kansas State. The Texas defensive backs need to stay on their receivers and be aggressive. The defensive backs are often losing their receivers, and this lack of coverage allows for big plays. 

Texas loses if…

It gets down. Texas is the type of team that beats itself up when it gets down. If Iowa State gets the lead, this will beat Texas up mentally. Against Kansas State and Oklahoma, Texas had the lead the entire time. In the past two games, the Longhorns have shown they can keep the momentum going when they’re in the lead. Had Texas fallen behind in either of those games, it may have been a different outcome. Because this is an away game, Iowa State will have the home-field advantage over Texas. The Cyclones will have the crowd on their side to help build momentum. Texas will have to rely on its own passion for momentum Saturday.