Immunity from COVID-19 variants may wane in the coming weeks due to decreasing antibody levels and loss of vaccine protection over time. Local experts said consistent testing and staying up to date with boosters is critical as new omicron sub-variants drive the latest surge in cases.

The newly evolved BA.4 and BA.5 sub-variants of omicron are currently the dominant strains of COVID-19 in the U.S., according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. These sub-variants have evolved in a way that makes prior immunity from vaccinations and previous infections less effective, said Spencer Fox, associate director of the UT COVID-19 Modeling Consortium.  

Experts stressed the importance of not relying on immunity gained from previous infections to serve as protection against the latest variants.

“We are at the stage where many people start losing immunity,” said Anass Bouchnita, a researcher at the UT COVID-19 Modeling Consortium. 

Bouchnita said any immunity acquired from omicron infections in January, when the variant’s surge was around its peak, will start to wane in the coming weeks, making people more susceptible to reinfections. 

“Previous infections are providing immunity against severe disease, but they’re not necessarily providing immunity against you getting infected and potentially transmitting it to others,” Fox said.

This surge could be especially difficult to track due to a decrease in testing for the virus in the general population, Bouchnita said. He said daily testing numbers are at their lowest since February of last year. 

“We know a surge is happening, but it’s hard to put it in context with the previous surges we’ve seen because there have been so many testing changes over the past months,” Fox said. 

The Austin-Travis County COVID-19 Community Level of risk is currently classified as medium, but this level may underestimate the number of local active cases due to low testing numbers, Bouchnita said.

Though COVID-19 variants continue to evolve, current vaccinations will still provide a level of immunity against recent variants, Bouchnita said. 

“It’s still very important to get vaccinated and to stay up to date with the booster because it really significantly reduces the chances of getting hospitalized or dying upon contracting BA.4 or BA.5,” Bouchnita said. 

Bouchnita said it is critical that people continue to take precautions to avoid contracting COVID-19, such as testing before traveling, avoiding large crowds and wearing a mask.

“I don’t think that people should take COVID lightly, and I don’t think that getting infected is something to underestimate,” Bouchnita said.