Bracket watch:

No. 1 seed: Oregon Ducks

First team out: Miami Hurricanes

Last team in: Arizona State Sun Devils

Cinderella team: SMU Mustangs

Undefeated Oregon has led the AP Poll since week nine, after the then-No. 1 Longhorns fell to Georgia. At this point, it would be a surprise if anyone but the Ducks took the first seed, but things could change if they fall to Penn State in the Big Ten Championship on Saturday. The Nittany Lions are also a safe bet to make the playoffs with an 11–1 record, but unless they upset Oregon, it’s likely Penn State will be right outside the top four seeds and not make it directly to the quarterfinals.

Seeds one to four will have less game to worry about, while five to 12 must get through a first round before reaching the quarterfinals. 

The top-four teams will likely be the winners of the SEC, the Big 10, the ACC and the Mountain West conferences; the Big 12 might be the least represented Power-5 conference in the tournament.

The number two seed should go to the winner of Texas versus Georgia in the SEC Championship, but the winner could also move up a spot if Oregon falls. 

Either Arizona State or Miami could get the last spot in the bracket. Miami is ranked higher and has had a more successful season, ranked No. 3 in the ACC. But the Hurricanes aren’t in the fight for a conference championship. Arizona State, on the other hand, is at No. 12 and with a 10–2 record. 

The Sun Devils are set to play No. 16 Iowa State for the Big 12 conference title on Saturday, and it’s unlikely the winner of this matchup will stay out of the playoffs.

The Southeastern Conference, as usual, is expected to dominate the bracket with at least five teams. 

Based on the College Football Playoff Committee’s most recent projected bracket, Texas, as the No. 2 seed, will play the winner of Indiana versus Georgia in the quarterfinal. 

11–1 Indiana could shock Bulldog fans after a solid season, and Texas’ northern neighbors SMU had the best start to conference play for a newcomer in a Power-4 conference with a 5–0 streak. SMU is capable of winning the ACC in its first season and jumping to the quarterfinals as a high seed. 

The Mustangs might not have been an obvious contender, but they could make it far. 

Here is the projected seeding per the last bracket:

1. Oregon (vs. Penn State, Big Ten Championship)
2. Texas (vs. Georgia, SEC Championship)
3. SMU (vs. Clemson, ACC Championship)
4. Boise State (vs. UNLV, MWC Championship)
5. Penn State 
6. Notre Dame
7. Georgia
8. Ohio State
9. Tennessee
10. Indiana
11. Alabama
12. Arizona State (vs. Iowa State, Big 12 Championship)

First out: Miami

Second out: Ole Miss