With Selection Sunday airing March 16 at 6 p.m. ET, anxious college basketball teams nationwide will finally be put to momentary ease after learning which 68 teams will battle it out in the NCAA Championship Tournament, starting on March 18.
Not including the 2019-2020 season, which was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Texas has only been shy of March Madness selection three times since 2000. With four consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances, Texas’ previous resume alone doesn’t guarantee the team a ticket to the Big Dance.
Heading into the 2024-25 season, Texas experienced an entirely new starting lineup change, forcing the team to adjust to the changing of the guard and playing with each other. Despite this, the Longhorns came in strong but struggled the second half of the regular season in their inaugural year in the Southeastern Conference, winning only six of their last 18 games.
Their 6–12 conference record and downtick in player performance, compared to previous seasons, created vast uncertainty in their ability to secure a seed for March Madness.
Entering the SEC Tournament on Wednesday, Texas’ probability of securing an at-large bid remained low. Yet, Texas seemingly pulled the team together when stakes were at their highest and executed a conference quarterfinals appearance.
Initially labelled a first four team out, referencing the first four teams that will not make the NCAA tournament, Texas’ victory against Vanderbilt was essential for keeping any chance at March Madness alive.
Their momentum from the 79–72 win against Vanderbilt bled into Thursday’s matchup against in-state rivals, then-No. 14 Texas A&M.
With two intense overtime periods, Texas’ pivotal 94–89 win against A&M led them to the conference quarterfinals against No. 8 Tennessee on Friday. Thus, increasing its probability of securing a seed at the NCAA Tournament from 45% to 73%, according to the ESPN Analytics model.
However, as Texas faced one of the toughest college basketball teams, untimely fouls and lack of defensive power contributed to their 83–72 quarterfinal defeat. Consequently, dropping its probability from 73% to 63% in the ESPN Analytics model.
Despite this drop, the SEC contains six teams ranked 15 or under in the AP rankings. The sheer dominance exhibited by this year’s Southeastern Conference has led to 14 out of 16 teams projected to receive a bid — with Texas on the bubble as the SEC’s 14th.
When comparing other teams sitting on the bubble, such as Vanderbilt, UNC, Indiana, Xavier, Boise State, San Diego and Dayton, here’s how they compare to Texas’ 66% in their chances of making the tournament:
Falling closely behind are UNC, which made an ACC conference quarterfinal appearance, and Vanderbilt, which lost in the first round of the SEC Tournament to the Longhorns. Both teams sit at 61%.
Next, Indiana’s first-round conference loss to No. 23 Oregon led their odds to take a plunge. Additionally, while Xavier made the Big East quarterfinals, its predictions fell after losing to No. 25 Marquette. Both now sit at 44%.
While Boise State’s odds were initially higher, they too plummeted from 69% to 34% following its conference finals loss.
The other two teams sit below 30: San Diego at 29% and Dayton at 15%.
All in all, despite its inconsistent season, Texas ended 19–15 with seven Quad One wins and showcased one of the strongest tournament runs out of any team on the bubble. Thus, bolstering its resume and presenting a solid case for the at-large bid as one of the last four in.
Still, only time will tell whether Texas has secured their invitation to the Big Dance.
