The state of emergency that has been cast onto Texas football ever since the final light shut off at Sanford Stadium in Athens, Georgia, has been trite.
Head coach Steve Sarkisian has heard it all and delivered more: from the post-game anecdotes of future success, to the Monday afternoon headlines of “according to who” when asked about failing to meet expectations and questions on looking for NFL jobs asked later in the week.
Texas football is, well, in chaos.
Expectations have fallen short. Their playoff hopes are in turmoil. And the Texas student section is, I fear, not going to fill up on Saturday as Thanksgiving break kicks off.
Today, I will not smother you with egregious opinions, out-of-context facts or even terrible jokes.
I will focus on the path to the College Football Playoff — what must happen and what must happen only. Texas sits at No. 17 in the most recent CFP poll and with two weeks left in the season, it will take a lot of help.
First, Texas must win out.
Let’s get the obvious out of the way first. Two games left in the season and 7–3. One loss knocks out even a chance. With Arkansas and No. 3 Texas A&M coming to Austin in the next two weeks, the Longhorns must win convincingly. Let me say something everyone’s thinking: the Aggies are fraudulent. Their 7–0 Southeastern Conference record is all fueled by the seven of the nine worst teams in the conference, by record.
The Aggies just escaped against South Carolina last week, a game that was 30-3 at the half and narrowly beat Arkansas 45-42. Texas A&M is beatable, and its 10–0 record is as inflated as it gets in the SEC.
With Texas reigning over Texas A&M, it would also mark the first time since quarterback Joe Burrow’s 2019 LSU squad beat three top-10 teams in the same regular season.
Then, the other guys.
A win against the No. 3 team in the CFP needs more convincing. Five teams are guaranteed spots, based on winning their respective conference championship games. Those bids, this year, will likely come from the SEC, Atlantic Coast Conference, Big 10, Big 12 and American Conference. That leaves seven other spots.
At No. 16, Georgia Tech has No. 4 Georgia still on its schedule. With a loss, they would fall out. With a conference championship to still play in, they would have to either miss that game in a loss against Pittsburgh or lose against Virginia or SMU in the ACC Championship game.
At No. 15, USC has No. 7 Oregon in Eugene this week. The Trojans must lose this game for Texas to have a chance, as USC will not be a participant in the Big 10 championship this year, assuming Ohio State wins its final two games of the year.
At No. 14 is Vanderbilt, with a relatively light schedule left this year, just Kentucky and No. 20 Tennessee remain. I see the Commodores winning out. But with Texas beating Vanderbilt earlier this season and assuming the Longhorns beat the Aggies, I see the Longhorns jumping ahead.
Miami stands at No. 13, but with a light schedule in not-so-good losses on the lineup, the Longhorns would likely jump redshirt senior quarterback Carson Beck and the Hurricanes here with a win during rivalry week.
At No. 12, No. 11 and No. 5 are Utah, BYU and Texas Tech, respectively. I can only see one of these teams making the field, with Texas Tech being far superior to the other two — but if BYU beats Texas Tech in the Big 12 championship, it might just knock out the Longhorns from the field.
The analysis:
It’s a long shot, but it’s not 0% that Texas isn’t playing a CFP playoff game come December. The Allstate CFP predictor gives Texas a 17% chance to make it if they win out and as the great actor Jim Carrey put it in the great movie known as “Dumb and Dumber:”
So you’re saying there’s a chance?
